What are the odds that a technology preview becomes a product or service?

Autodesk customers typically imagine, design, and create:

• places
• things
• media (film, TV show, commercial, game)

As we help our customers design, make, and use their creations, we have gathered our solutions into collections for:

• Architecture, Engineering, and Construction
• Product Design
• Media and Entertainment

In my mind, since our one for places includes "Architecture, Engineering, and Construction," I wonder if our second one shouldn't be called "Product Design and Manufacturing," but I am not in marketing. I am a software engineer.

In yesterday's blog post, I defined what a technology preview is. In yesterday's post, I mentioned that a technology preview is not an alpha nor a beta. When working with an alpha, the customer expectation is that the next step is beta. When working with a beta, the customer expectation is that the next step is production. In the case of a technology preview, there is no expectation for a next step. Technology previews sometimes GRADUATE to the next step. Other times, technology previews RETIRE. When the technology preview retires, it is not necessarily dead. It may return in the future, perhaps in another form, but its availability has ended at the time of retirement.

So given that a technology can retire at the end of a preview instead of graduate, why would customers participate in technology previews? Why would they take the chance of learning and trying a new technology only to have the rug pulled out from under them? It's because they get to help shape the solutions that will meet the needs of their businesses. They can influence the technology's development, so they get a solution that actually works for them. In addition, by trying the technology in its preview stage, they can get experience with it before their competitors do. In the end, they have peace of mind that when the technology becomes commercially available, it will work with their data, and they'll know how to use it, because they have tried for themselves.

If you're a fan of baseball (or someone who likes to gamble in Las Vegas), here are the batting averages of technology previews by industry collection.

Object	Industry	Number Graduated	Number Retired	Percent Graduated
place	Architecture, Engineering, and Construction	83	38	69%
thing	Product Design	45	23	66%
media	Media and Entertainment	12	8	60%

Typically, in the major leagues, batting between .250 (25%) and .300 (30%) is typically considered average. The odds of a player winning by betting on red or black on a roulette wheel are 47.37%. In other words, the odds that given a technology preview, that you help us shape, becomes a production offering that you will be able to use at the end of the preview are better than baseball or roulette. Of course, cross-industry comparisons may not always be enlightening as there was that one time a customer compared help from Microsoft Support to advice from the Psychic Friends Network. Comparisons aside, the odds for technology previews are pretty good, so participating in technology previews is a worthwhile undertaking.

Timing is important. As I mentioned yesterday, technology previews have fixed start and end dates. These dates are published at the onset of each technology preview. Although we don't recommend that technology previews be used in commercial projects. we are realists and recognize that some customers will only evaluate a technology if they can reap its benefits on an actual project. Though this does allow the technology to get real world exposure, it can create issues if the technology preview ends before the customer project ends.

• Technology previews based on installed code have built-in time bombs that cease operation of the technology on the day that the technology preview ends. Any data that was created by the technology is still valid. It's just not possible to create new data or edit existing data since the technology preview no longer operates. When a technology preview ends, it is not possible to extend the preview for a particular customer as the time bomb is hardcoded into the technology.
• Technology previews based on webs services are also not extensible as servers are decommissioned.

So customers who try technology previews on real projects need to be aware of when each technology preview ends.

Thanks to all of our customers who take a chance and help shape the future of our technology.

Odds-making is alive in the lab.